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Early Thoughts on Impact of the Federal Stimulus
(Specific to FMAP and Governor Crist’s New Proposed Budget)

Medicaid is a means-tested individual entitlement program created in the mid-1960s. Unlike the federal Medicare program, Medicaid is jointly financed by federal and state governments. The Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP) defines the share of total Medicaid expenditures the federal government pays. The FMAP varies from state to state and is determined annually by a complex statutory formula that I hope you don’t want me to even try to explain. The FMAP formula was designed to account for income variation across the states. There is also a time lag on state data, which is why some years after Florida’s income rose due to the flurry of hurricanes we had in 2004 and 2005, Florida actually saw the federal match be reduced a few percentage points.

For fiscal year (FY) 2009, the FMAP was scheduled to range from 50 percent in California and several other states to 75.84 percent in Mississippi. The federal government was scheduled to finance an average of 57 percent of all Medicaid costs annually with states financing an average of 43 percent. For years, I used to explain Medicaid distributions as roughly a 60-40 federal-state sharing program. There is no cap on the amount the federal government pays; hence, the more a state spends the more it receives from the federal government.

The catch is that the states have to raise the money first before becoming eligible for the federal match. Florida, as we have previously discussed, has put up very little general revenue to draw down the federal portion. For many years Florida has drawn down federal dollars through a tax on every hospital’s net revenue (1.5 percent on inpatient and 1 percent on outpatient) as well as tax dollars generated for Medicaid purposes raised in about 10 of Florida’s 67 counties. Last year, of the total state-related dollars used to leverage federal dollars, only about 13 percent actually came from Florida general tax revenue. The rest came from hospital taxes, Public Medical Assistance Trust Fund (PMATF) and local taxes.

State-federal sharing is intended to serve as an incentive for states to commit resources to their Medicaid programs … the higher the FMAP, the stronger the incentive. An FMAP, for example, of 50 percent, means that for every dollar a state spends on Medicaid, the federal government contributes one dollar. With an FMAP of 75 percent, the federal contribution is three dollars per state dollar. However, when a state cuts its Medicaid spending, it also forgoes its federal share. So a state with an FMAP of 75 percent, for example, will lose three federal dollars for every state dollar it cuts, for a total reduction in Medicaid spending of four dollars. This is why every year we try to point out to state legislators that cutting Florida’s Medicaid commitment dramatically decreases Federal reimbursement.

This year Florida was scheduled for 54.98 percent FMAP. Based on a new stimulus formula that I also hope you don’t ask me to explain called the Enhanced Federal Medical Assistance Percentage, states would get a higher percent based on the economic challenges facing each state. The range is now from a high of 82.97 percent for Mississippi and a low of 65 percent for a number of states like California. Florida’s new enhanced rate would go up to 68.49 percent from 54.98 percent.

One challenge for Florida is that while the Florida match requirement has declined from 45 to 31.5 percent the total number of Medicaid enrollees has increased tremendously in the past year. As you saw in the News-Press a few weeks ago, Lee County’s Medicaid enrolled population increased by 25 percent in the past year, which more than double the rate of increase in the state. However, coming up with the new lower percent even with the growth of Medicaid enrollees is clearly doable and gives the state a stimulus windfall. Unfortunately, Governor Crist's recently announced budget basically uses the bump of about 12 percent bigger share through the FMAP to help bail out the general revenue deficit in multiple non health care areas of the budget. I call this the “education lottery shuffle.”

The FMAP increase saves Florida about $1.2 billion in GR (remember where the bulk of GR really comes from in the first place) this year and about $1.7 billion next year for a total of $3 billion. The federal stimulus package also has a significant clause that many governors did not want to have included. The “hold harmless clause” requires programs funded last year must continue to be funded in order to be eligible for stimulus support. So the proposed budget does fund the Medically Needy Program and the program for Medically Aged and Disabled. The governor had no choice but to include both programs as well as fully fund existing Medicaid caseloads due to the hold harmless clause.

Medicaid Rates
In the most recent special Florida legislative session, Medicaid rates were reduced by 4 percent. Governor Crist’s budget annualizes that 4 percent cut. While no further cuts in Medicaid rates are recommended, the reality is that hospital Medicaid rates have been cut by 13.4 percent in the past 20 months through two special sessions and one regular session. Given the current economic meltdown, holding steady on Medicaid rates even though they have declined in the past two years would be seen as a victory. If the governor’s proposed budget passes, Medicaid reimbursement would not erode any more through at least July 2010. The obvious challenge is what happens in two years when the stimulus money goes away and we suddenly have (in today’s dollars) a $3 billion hole left in Medicaid.

Medicaid is the biggest generator of stimulus money for the state of Florida. Unfortunately hospitals are only getting enough to avoid reductions greater than the over 13 percent reduction we have already experienced. When we go to Tallahassee next month to meet with legislators, we need to explain that the stimulus dollars were intended to enhance (stimulate) not just avoid even greater losses.

Tobacco User-Fee
As we have previously discussed, the concept of a tobacco user-fee was considered as the only feasible way to generate significant new state dollars. Florida is the fourth lowest in the nation in terms of a user-fee for cigarettes or other forms of tobacco. A $1 per pack increase would place Florida at the average of all states and would raise about $1 billion. While getting the tobacco user-fee approved in an anti-tax legislature was a long shot, there was some momentum brewing and such funding would have been an ongoing source well beyond the stimulus package. This was seen at a minimum as a way to protect the long term viability of the Medically Needy and Medically Aged and Disabled programs.

The tobacco user-fee also has a direct correlation to health costs. Annual Florida health costs directly caused by smoking are estimated at $6.2 billion and productivity losses are even greater. According to the American Cancer Society, each Florida household ends up with an annual tax burden of $585 due to smoking related expenses.

The stimulus package took away some momentum from the tobacco user-fee. Additionally, national funding for the expansion of the children’s program referred to as SCHIP is an increase in the tobacco user-fee of 61 cents per pack.

Pursuing a long term funding source through a tobacco user-fee and then using the stimulus package as a short term enhancement appears very unlikely. The Florida Senate leadership has appeared willing to consider some real tax reform, in addition to tobacco user-fees.

Nevertheless, it seems that most legislators and the governor would prefer to use the stimulus package to patch up short term challenges while avoiding any serious tax reform discussions for at least the next two years.

Interestingly, Governor Crist’s proposed budget has about $500 million in fee increases. He uses about $287 million expected from the gambling compact with the Seminole Indian Tribes to go into a trust fund earmarked for education.

Bottom line
In the short run the federal economic Stimulus Package may help avoid deeper budget reductions to hospitals, but Florida has major challenges--just as with the nation--for the longer haul when the stimulus goes away.

 

Peace,

Jim Nathan, LMHS President

 



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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